Haynesville forecast to lead U.S. shale growth in next two years

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(The Center Square) – Domestic natural gas production is expected to increase by an average of 4.0 billion cubic feet per day, or 3.4%, in the next two years to 122.3 billion cubic feet per day, with more than two-thirds of the additional output produced in the Haynesville shale region of northwest Louisiana and northeast Texas.

Through the end of 2027, higher gas production will be driven primarily by rising demand for fuels to power data centers across the U.S. and by liquefied natural gas exports shipped from terminals in Louisiana and Texas, according to the U.S. Department of Energy's updated February forecast. 

The department projects natural gas production in the Hayneville shale region will grow 1.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 to reach an average of 15.6 billion cubic feet per day, an increase of 8.3% in the year. 

In 2027, Haynesville natural gas output is expected to jump another 1.6 billion cubic feet per day, or by 10.3%, to 17.1 billion cubic feet a day.

Prolonged cold weather in late January in many parts of the country drove power demand to record levels, draining the tanks that store U.S. natural gas and pushing prices higher, according to the department.

“We expect prices to rise from $3.52 per million British thermal units in 2025 to $4.31 per million in 2026 and to $4.38 per million in 2027, which allows drilling in the Haynesville region to remain economical, even with relatively deeper and more expensive well development,” per the latest forecast.

Most of the gas found in the Haynesville is produced by wells drilled to depths of 10,000 feet to 18,000 feet below the surface, which compares to the 6,000-feet to 10,000-feet range common in the Permian Basin and with 4,000 feet to 8,500 feet in the Marcellus.

Haynesville gas producers are near LNG export facilities

Natural gas production in the Permian basin, which crosses parts of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, is forecast to climb 2 billion cubic feet per day in the next two years to an average of 27.8 billion cubic feet per day, an increase of 7.8%, according to the energy department. 

Appalachian natural gas production will grow an average of 300 million cubic feet per day in 2026 and then by another 500 million cubic feet per day in 2027 to about 37 billion cubic feet per day, or by 2.2%, according to the forecast.

“The closest gas supply in volumes needed at the big LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast is in the Haynesville shale basin, but what is produced there is determined by what is happening in west Texas,” said Eric Smith, an energy economist at Tulane University’s Freeman School of Business.

Smith said the economics of oil and gas production in the Haynesville and Permian basins differ, with benchmark prices for natural gas set by oil drillers in west Texas. Companies drilling in the Permian basin generally target oil, Smith said, and when prices are low they throttle back production and their natural gas output also declines, supporting new drilling activity in the Haynesville region.

“The difference between the Permian and the Haynesville is the Haynesville is a pure gas play,” said Smith.

“When the United States began exporting LNG, it represented less than 2% percent of the total gas production in the United States, but now it is closer to 12% and LNG exports now are increasing at a much faster rate than domestic gas consumption, so there is growing competition for supply with data centers and home consumers,” Smith said.

U.S. LNG exports averaged about 18 billion cubic feet a day in November 2025, the most recent energy department data shows, which compares with an average of about 4 billion cubic feet per day in 2019.

Haynesville gas drilling activity up sharply in early 2026

In the first weeks of 2026, companies drilling for natural gas In the Haynesville shale region of northwest Louisiana and northeast Texas added rigs at a rapid pace, industry data shows.

The Baker Hughes North American rig count for the week ended Feb. 13 shows a total of 52 gas-directed rigs in the Haynesville region – two more than the previous week, up eight from two weeks prior and 30 more than the 22 rigs in operation a year ago, when prices were lower. 

The total count of gas-directed rigs in the U.S. on Feb. 13 was at 133 rigs, an increase of three from the previous week and 32 more than at the same time in 2025.

The largest Haynesville producers in Louisiana, such as Expand Energy, Apex Natural Gas and Comstock Resources, are focusing new drilling primarily in DeSoto, Bienville and Sabine parishes. Since the beginning of 2026, the permits issued for new wells in Louisiana are primarily concentrated in Caddo, Bossier and DeSoto parishes.

In Texas, drilling is focused on Robertson and Leon Counties, where the most active drillers are Comstock Resources and Aethon Energy. In a recent earnings call, Comstock executives said they are prioritizing development of the company’s assets in the western Haynesville to supply rapidly growing gas demand from LNG export plants and data centers.

Comstock, majority-controlled by Dallas Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones, expects to drill 19 wells in the western Haynesville in Texas and bring 24 wells into production in 2026. On the Louisiana side of the border, the company anticipates it will drill 47 wells in the next year.

Comstock announced in December it is partnering with NextEra to develop a data center campus in east Texas that includes gas-fired, off-grid power generation to support hyperscaler activities. The companies plan initial generation capacity of 2 gigawatts with potential expansion to 8 gigawatts.