Election 2026: Top prediction markets have Cooper about 90%

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(The Center Square) – Nine in 10 bettors in prediction markets are favoring Democrat Roy Cooper over Republican Michael Whatley for the U.S. Senate seat from North Carolina in the 2026 midterms.

At Polymarket, Cooper leads 89%-12%. At Kalshi, it’s Cooper 91.9%-8.1%.

Prediction markets are exchange-traded platforms, with participants buying and selling contracts tied to future outcomes. Sports are part, as are elections, politics, cryptocurrency, and many other areas of interest from culture to finance.

On Jan. 2 at Kalshi, Cooper led 74.4%-25.6%. He was up 73%-23% that day at Polymarket.

Absentee ballots go into the mail Sept. 4 – just under five weeks away. North Carolinians will choose a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, and all 170 members of the General Assembly.

This U.S. Senate seat is a viewed as a major player nationally in the quest for majority in the chamber. Republicans have 53 seats today. In no particular order, Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, New Hampshire, Alaska and Texas are the other top battlegrounds among 35 races.

Republicans are 5-for-5 in North Carolina's U.S. Senate races since losing to the late Kay Hagan in 2008. Democrats chase back to 1998 for the last time winning a Senate seat at the midterms. Yet Cooper, a career politician since 1986, counters with statewide wins in four attorney general races and two gubernatorial races – all from 2000 to 2020.

Republicans in statewide races for this decade – 2020, 2022 and 2024 – are 32-10 against Democrats, a party with significantly declining voter registrations for more than 20 consecutive years. It'll attempt to rejuvenate this weekend at its annual convention with the keynote speaker being Democratic Socialists of America supporter U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.