WATCH: How inflated success rates pushed a Seattle diversion program nationwide

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(The Center Square) - False information led Congress and others to appropriate tens of millions of dollars in cities across the nation for the Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion model, data shows.

As reported by The Center Square, Washington Policy Center recently produced analysis revealing that 11 years of claims by LEAD backers related to reduced recidivism and arrest rates were based on inaccurate numbers that were repeated over and over again as evidence of the success of the program.

LEAD gives police officers a way to redirect people dealing with substance abuse or mental health issues, away from jail and criminal prosecution.

Now, in a second report, from WPC’s Director of Public Safety Solutions Policy Eric Zimmerman, says Congress needs to put the brakes on any further funding for LEAD programs until further scrutiny is applied.

“It turns out that you gave us numbers that were false in persuading us to do it. I think that's a problem,” said Zimmerman in a Friday interview with The Center Square.

“We've got a clear example here where not just Seattle City Council, not just Washington State's legislature, but dozens of cities and dozens of states, and then the U.S. Congress, were pulled into this pattern of false numbers being used to change federal law, to change state laws.," he said

"Hundreds of millions of dollars in public funds going to this thing. And if it turns out that these numbers were wrong all along."

Supporters of LEAD claim the program reduced recidivism by 58%, reduced felony charges by 39% and increased odds of being employed by 46%.

The underlying research contradicts those claims.

“Initial press releases and advertising proudly declared: 'People in LEAD were 58% less likely than people in the control group to be arrested.' Subsequent materials claimed LEAD 'reduced recidivism for all crimes by 58%,'" noted Zimmerman.

“These claims were false. They roughly doubled or tripled the study’s practical results by confusing an abstract statistical measure — a loosely described 58% odds change — with percentage and likelihood drops in real-world arrests,” noted Zimmerman’s article.

When The Center Square interviewed LEAD co-creator Lisa Daugaard upon WPC’s initial report in early August, she admitted that the 58% number has been inaccurately reported and said they will amend the figure.

“It's not a 58% reduction in the absolute number of arrests for the LEAD participants. It is a 58% reduced likelihood of being arrested compared to a comparison group. But WPC is not wrong. It should not be sort of flattened or further simplified as a 58% reduction in the number of arrests. That is the mistake,” Daugaard said.

The HaRRT Center at the University of Washington, which has conducted independent evaluations of Seattle's LEAD program, published an 11-page letter refuting Zimmerman's original analysis.

"Although we were not responsible for additional reporting and were not typically consulted on how the program evaluation was discussed, we are happy to help correct the record. We are also supportive of organizations doing their best to use and discuss the evidence base in planning community-based interventions," the Aug. 16 letter said.

"With that said, the statistical findings of the original HaRRT Center LEAD evaluation — published across three peer-reviewed articles and four reports —  still stand," the letter said.

Zimmerman has called for Congress to begin immediate scrutiny of all LEAD funding, as thousands of elected officials have been presented with false versions of LEAD’s “evidence”, which led to appropriating hundreds of millions of dollars for a program.

Among those members of Congress who cited LEAD success in securing additional federal funding was Rep. Suzan DelBene of Washington.

She introduced an amendment to 2016’s CARA act, incorrectly claiming “LEAD successfully reduces recidivism [reoffending] by as much as 60 percent.”

During debate over the amendment, Republicans echoed the 60 percent figure and congratulated Rep. DelBene on her amendment.

The Center Square reached out to Congresswoman DelBene on Friday for comment on WPC’s report.

“Revisiting and clarifying LEAD’s evidence and methodology should not be used to justify defunding the entire program. LEAD has a proven track record of reducing recidivism, a fact supported by subsequent research. It is supported by police officers, prosecutors, local leaders, businesses, and participants, which is why communities across the country continue to adopt it," wrote Nick Martin, a DelBene spokesperson via email.

"Rep. DelBene is always open to ideas of how to improve and strengthen a program. It’s disappointing that WPC published this report without allowing the original researchers to rebut these claims or provide further evidence,” he said. 

In response to the email from DelBene's office, Zimmerman wrote:

Andrea Suarez, Founder of We Heart Seattle has been a critic of LEAD for years. Her organization picks up drug needles and used foil in the parks and on the streets of Seattle, and work to get people addicted to drugs off the streets and into treatment.

“These politicians were so desperate for incarceration and policing alternatives, so they could run on that," she said. "'We support LEAD, we support this alternative to incarceration. We support this alternative to putting handcuffs on a drug addict.' They loved it," said Suarez.

She said LEAD supporters should be accountable for promoting false success numbers.

“How many lives have been lost? How much damage in our communities, how many people are stuck in their cycle of addiction and crime? The life of crime because we're sitting here waiting for them to come up with their own plan,” said Suarez.

King County Public Health recently provided a response to an inquiry from The Center Square regarding claims that the county's current policies facilitate higher overdose numbers rather than preventing them.

"The influx of fentanyl led to a sharp rise in fatal overdoses across the U.S and in King County. Our comprehensive approach to overdose response and recovery focuses on getting more people into treatment and preventing more overdoses," wrote Sharon Bogan from Seattle & King County Public Health last month.

"Harm reduction measures are critical but insufficient on their own to resolve the overdose and substance use disorder crises. Comprehensive mental and behavioral health services, affordable and accessible housing, employment pathways and case management are all needed as part of a comprehensive, evidence-based approach to addressing these challenges."

"People need support and stability to help them get into treatment and prevent overdoses. That often means taking steps along the way like getting people connected to support and increasing the opportunities for people to access treatment services. Treatment stabilizes substance use and reduces long-term risk," she wrote.

Washington state's drug overdose death rate remains among the highest in the nation. Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids drive the majority of these fatalities, accounting for roughly 73% of total overdose deaths.