Report: Cost of living is pricing Californians out of state

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(The Center Square) – New research shows that Californians are being priced out of the state in growing numbers, mostly due to rising housing costs.

And the decrease in population reportedly could cost the Golden State as many as four seats in Congress.

The report, published by the California Policy Lab in March 2026, shows people who left California for other states paid an average of $2,376 in monthly housing costs in California. After leaving the state, they spent an average of $1,705 a month in housing costs, the report said.

People who moved to different locations in California spent an average of $2,277 a month in housing costs after moving, an increase from $2,263 before moving to a different location in the state. People who moved from other states to California saw a big jump in their average monthly housing costs, spending an average of $1,754 before moving to California and $2,418 after moving here.

“It just further goes to explain that the Legislature in California, the majority party, the governor have not focused on policies that make the cost of living more affordable here for hardworking families,” Sen. Suzette Martinez Valladares, R-Lancaster, said, referring to Democrats and Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.

“The middle class is leaving because they can’t afford to stay in the communities they grew up in," Valladares told The Center Square. "People who have called California home for decades now calling other states home because they’ve been pushed out.”

The top states Californians are moving to, for a more affordable cost of living, include Nevada, Idaho, Oregon, Arizona, Washington and Montana. Wyoming, Utah and Colorado also are welcoming some Californians.

“In California, people are actually leaving, not because they want to leave, but they’re leaving because they can’t afford to stay,” Assemblymember Tom Lackey, R-Palmdale, told The Center Square.

Lackey said rolling back construction regulations would help to spur new housing and lower costs.

“We all talk about some of the environmental restrictions that make these builders unable to continue to build communities because we have people who are willing and ready,” Lackey said. “The only thing that’s going to moderate prices is building more. The supply has to increase in order to bring prices down.”

The outflow of California’s population to other states could affect the state's tax base, a researcher from California Policy Lab told The Center Square.

“Given the big economic shifts in California over the last decade (the pandemic, several tech booms), it’s difficult to say how much one factor like outmigration has affected the state’s tax base,” said Brett Fischer, researcher at California Policy Lab.

“But over the long term, net outflows from California could have consequences for California’s fiscal outlook and national clout," Fischer said, answering The Center Square's questions by email.

The Golden State’s population loss might not just have financial repercussions for the state’s tax base. Research published by the nonprofit The Brennan Center in 2023 shows that as the population shrinks, California could lose an estimated four seats in Congress in 2030.

The research, which doesn’t address the cost of living, shows California has seen more population losses year on year than any other state since 2020, setting up the country's most populous state to lose congressional seats by 2030.

California is projected to have only 48 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2030 if the state’s population loss continues at its current trajectory, the Brennan Center study shows. The state currently has 52 seats.

Texas is projected to have an increase of four seats, at 42, while Florida is expected to have 32 seats after the next U.S. Census.

The number of congressional seats is decided by the population of a state, which is tracked in the U.S. Census every 10 years. The last census was in 2020.

California’s successful mid-decade redistricting effort in November did not increase the state's total number of seats. But it did redraw the lines of congressional districts. The intent is to allow Democrats to pick up five new seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, which means Republicans would lose five seats at a time when they hold a razor-thin majority.

California’s mid-decade redistricting special election followed Texas’ own mid-decade redistricting push last year, in which Texas Republicans now have the chance to pick up five new seats in the U.S. House.

The new congressional district maps California voters approved in the November 2025 ballot measure are effective not just in the 2026 midterm elections, but the 2028 and 2030 general elections. All U.S. House seats are up for election in even-numbered years.

New maps drawn by the independent California Citizens’ Redistricting Commission would go into effect after the results of the 2030 U.S. Census are released.

The Center Square reached out to 15 Democrats in the California Legislature to get their take on the California Policy Lab study, the state of housing prices in California and their proposals for bringing down housing costs, as well as how the state’s population outflow could affect California’s number of seats in Congress in 2030. All declined to be interviewed for this story or did not respond to The Center Square.

Representatives from the Brennan Center also did not respond to The Center Square on Thursday.